December 18, 2025 | Dubai, UAE: According to official statistics provided by the Ministry of Health and Prevention, the situation in the United Arab Emirates is worrying because the number of births among Emirati citizens decreased significantly during the period between 2014 and 2023.
Although the general UAE population growth trend is increasing, due to the birth of expatriates, the decreasing rates of fertility amongst the nationals, the parliamentary committees have decided to review the long-term effects of the phenomenon on the demographic balance of the country.
Sharp Fall in Emirati Fertility Rates
According to the data provided by Emirates Al Youm for UAE population growth, the number of births of UAE citizens has declined by 13.55 per cent in the last ten years, reaching 29,926 in 2023 as compared to 34,618 in 2014. At the same time, the number of total births in the UAE, both among citizens and among expatriates, increased by 5.45 per cent, 95,860 to 101,088. This gap indicates the diverging patterns between the citizen and expatriate UAE population growth, which provokes questions concerning the viability of the trends of the UAE population growth.
The Health and Environment Committee of the Federal National Council developed a detailed report of the 12 issues that impacted the UAE population growth.
It was reported that the mean age at which Emirati men marry rose to 32 years and seven months in 202,2 compared to the average age at marriage of 30 years and six months in 2018. Among women, the numbers have increased by four months and six or seven years to twenty-eight and nine months. The overall fertility rate of citizens has gone down to 2.9 children per woman in 2023, as compared to 3.2 in 2021.
Birth Statistics: Citizens vs Total Population (2014-2023)
| Year | Emirati Births | Total Births (All) | Percentage Change |
| 2014 | 34,618 | 95,860 | Baseline |
| 2023 | 29,926 | 101,088 | 13.55% (Citizens) /+5.45% (Total) |
Regional Birth Distribution (2023)
| Emirate | Total Births | Citizen Births |
| Abu Dhabi | 37,631 | 15,770 |
| Dubai | 36,300 | 7,109 |
| Sharjah | 14,042 | 2,641 |
| Ajman | 5,915 | 480 |
| Ras Al Khaimah | 3,170 | 1,519 |
Fertility Rate Trends
| Indicator | 2018 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| Average Marriage Age (Men) | 30y 6m | – | 32y 7m | – | – |
| Average Marriage Age (Women) | 26y 4m | – | 28y 9m | – | – |
| Total Fertility Rate | – | 3.2 | – | 2.9 | 1.21 |
Disparities in the Region and Problems of the Health System
The 2023 regional breakdowns indicate that there are considerable disparities within the Emirates. Abu Dhabi had 37,631 births with 15770 citizens, and Dubai had 36,300 births with 7109 citizens. Sharjah recorded 14,042 births, out of which 2,641 were citizens. Smaller emirates had smaller totals, with Ajman having 5,915 births, 480 of which were citizens and Ras Al Khaimah with 3,170 births, 1,519 of its citizens.
The difficulty was mentioned by Dr Mughair Al Khaili, who is the Chairman of the Department of Community Development in Abu Dhabi, in a recent podcast, stating that the older UAE population growth at a rate of about 4,000 residents per year in Abu Dhabi alone.
He cautioned that civilisations would face long-term tension in case the fertility rate is lower than 2.1 children per woman, which is the replacement rate, because there can be more deaths than births.
The committee came up with challenges of the health system, such as disparity in the spread of reproductive health facilities in the Emirates, high cost of assisted fertility treatments and absence of specialised federal centres that could offer fertility support to enhance UAE population growth.
Government Response towards UAE Population Growth
Fertility and reproductive health were classified as one of the national priorities by the Minister of Family Sana bint Mohammed Suhail. An extensive national fertility policy is currently in the development process, and the action is based on the analysis of over 60 policies and initiatives already existing in the field of fertility. These are work-related policies, family support programmes, and professional-family life balancing to help the UAE population growth.
Social obstacles to lower birth rates were also determined by the report and included poor educational programmes on fertility, an increase in the cost of marriage, increasing levels of education, especially among women and a propensity towards individualism, which influences marriage and childbearing choices. According to the 2024 survey on Fertility, the United Nations showed that the fertility rates in the UAE have decreased to 1.21 in 2024, and this is expected to increase marginally to 1.34 by 2054, although it was 3.76 live births per woman in 1994.
According to Dr Charles Nagy, a consultant obstetrician in the Medcare Women and Children Hospital, Dubai, economic challenges and high cost of living are among the aspects that affect the family planning decisions, whereby the family would make fewer children. The cultural change where individual and professional success are given preference at the expense of early family life has greatly led to the demand for fertility treatments in the UAE.
The government has gone ahead to engage in proactive initiatives such as the formation of the Ministry of Family and the reforming of the Ministry of Community Development to the Ministry of Community Empowerment. The Abu Dhabi Department of Community Development has launched six programs to help UAE nationals get married, own children, form families, and help the society and family to be united. These initiatives are important milestones to the challenges of population is facing in the UAE, as trends of UAE population growth are bound to continue in the country.
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