Dubai, December 31th, 2025: The UAE fuel rates are in the spotlight as the petrol rates will be announced at the end of this month and the oil prices will be in January 2026. There might be a slight improvement in the prices of petrol in the UAE since the oil prices in the world market were low throughout December of 2025 although there was a recent spurt in prices due to geopolitical factors.
The December 2025 average Brent crude closing price was 61.51 per barrel, versus November, 63.7 per barrel, which means that the price decreased in the course of the month and this may affect the price of fuel in the country.
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The Determination Of The UAE Fuel Rates
In the year 2015, the UAE matched the oil prices in the world market during retail petrol and eliminated fuel subsidies as part of the diversification policies of the economy. Ever since then the petrol and diesel prices are adjusted on a monthly basis depending on the variations in the international oil prices.
Such a pricing mechanism guarantees that the UAE fuel rates are not fixed but they are subject to global market trends.
The World Oil Prices And The Market Trends
Brent and WTI crude traded at $60.64 and $56.74 per barrel respectively across the globe at the weekend. Nonetheless, the oil prices have recovered this week due to the worries that there will be a risk of supply due to the geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Ukraine-Russia conflict.
UAE Petrol Prices In December 2025
In the UAE, the December 2025 petrol rates were corrected to an increased amount, and they will be as follows:
- Super 98: Dh2.70 per litre
- Special 95: Dh2.58 per litre
- E-Plus: Dh2.51 per litre
These prices are now used as the baseline before January 2026 adjustment.
Professional Prognosis Of The Oil Supply And Demand
Ole Hansen, the commodity strategy head at Saxo Bank, noted that the world oil markets have gone into 2026 with a superficially convenient supply outlook, which is backed by increasing inventories, declining demand growth, and a comparatively flat futures curve. He however cautioned about larger structural dangers.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has also changed its prognosis and claimed that the UAE fuel rates and demand on oil will further increase after 2040. Meanwhile, the oil reservoirs currently in use are estimated to be 6 to 8 million barrels per day, and therefore this would entail the industry replacing huge amounts of supply on a consistent basis.
Hansen reported that there should not be a significant surplus in 2026 as indicated by short-term indicators. It is only later next year that the oil futures curve drifts into contango, and any early-year weakness may just be a fleeting effect and not a re-creation of the 202021 crash.
He said that OPEC+ allotment has low reserves, and that non-OPEC+ progression, such as the US shale growth, Brazil, and Guyana, might level off. The supply of upside by Iran, Russia or Venezuela is also limited.
Sweet long-cycle investment could lead to a collapse of supply in the early 2030s, unless incentivised Hansen warned.
The Implications Of This To UAE Fuel Rates
Hansen says that the markets are presented with a major choice; to either oil prices steadily strengthen to ensure funding is done to accommodate required investment, or to accept delayed investment and subsequently a more severe price spike in the future. Previous and more stable price indicators, he said, would aid in reducing economic turmoil.
The official announcement of the final UAE fuel rates will take place in the nearest days as soon as the monthly review process will be accomplished.
