The number that oil markets have been chasing since the war began on February 28 arrived on June 24. The price of Brent crude dropped to below $74 a barrel on Wednesday. This is the lowest since the start of the war with Iran.
As supply concerns eased with the arrival of more tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the hope of progress in the US-Iran peace talks. The US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, ended at $70.34 per barrel. It briefly touched $69.63, the first time since March 2 below $70.
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Is This the Pre-War Low?
In simple terms: yes. After rising more than 50 percent during the conflict, the price of crude on Wednesday was only about 7 percent higher than before the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28. The war began with Brent crude around $73 to $75. It peaked at $116.29 on March 9, 2026. However, Wednesday’s close of $73.74 puts Brent almost exactly back at its pre-war starting point. That is a collapse of roughly 40 percent from the wartime peak in just three months.
The International Energy Agency estimates the United Arab Emirates is exporting oil at nearly 85 percent of pre-war levels. Roughly, having sold roughly 60 million barrels from the Persian Gulf recently. Also, around 20 million barrels of crude oil exited the Strait of Hormuz in the 24 hours leading up to Wednesday’s close, according to US Energy Secretary Chris Wright. The strait is not fully open. However, it is open enough to move markets decisively.
Brent Crude: Can It Fall Further?
The short answer is yes, and the mechanism is already in motion. The US authorised Iranian oil sales this week, easing decades-old sanctions. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said Iranian production and exports could ramp up relatively quickly given the substantial amount stored on tankers, with the timeline likely weeks rather than months.
Analysts estimate the deal could release more than 85 million barrels of oil stranded in the Middle East Gulf into global markets. When that oil hits export terminals and buyers, supply pressure eases further. JP Morgan on Wednesday lowered its second-half 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast. They cited lower-than-expected commercial inventory draws and softer demand.
However, not everyone believes the fall is secure. Vandana Hari, founder of Singapore-based Vanda Insights, said the crude slide is entirely sentiment-driven. “The market is front-running the prospective reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and likely pricing in the best-case scenario for the normalisation of flows, which means the potential hiccups from logistics to renewed geopolitical tensions are not being adequately factored in,” she told Al Jazeera.
What Is Happening Around the World?
The war and its reversal have played out differently across different economies. Gas prices in the United States rose by $1.16 per gallon since the war began. In California, prices surpassed $6 per gallon in several counties during the conflict. Trump on Wednesday publicly criticised U.S. oil companies for not passing on the steep drop in crude to pump prices. He wrote on Truth Social that customers were being “gouged.”
The European Central Bank warned during the European conflict that a continued shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz would create inflationary pressures and push Germany and Italy into a technical recession. Chemical and steel manufacturers imposed surcharges of up to 30 percent to offset surging energy costs.
In India, LPG supply was severely disrupted, and expectations of a fuel price cut are rising as global crude falls further. The Philippines, Australia, and Vietnam all faced acute shortages and panic buying at peak crisis. Each of those countries is now watching $73.74 Brent with deep relief.
No country shows you what oil prices do to everyday people like Pakistan. On June 19, 2026, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had announced a reduction of Rs 74 per litre in petrol prices, bringing it from Rs 373.78 to Rs 299.78. High-speed diesel lowered by Rs 67 a litre, coming down from Rs 378.78 to Rs 311.78.
Rs 74 per litre on petrol is not small change. It is nearly a 20 percent reduction in a single announcement. For a country where fuel price movements dictate the cost of food, transport, and goods across the supply chain, that figure ripples outward immediately.
Brent Crude Fall: What This Means at the UAE Pumps?
The UAE Fuel Price Committee announces July rates on June 30. As things stand, with Brent now at pre-war levels, the case for a meaningful reduction in UAE petrol prices for July is strong. Super 98 currently costs AED 3.66 per litre, up 49 percent from the pre-war rate of AED 2.45 in February 2026.
A full return to pre-war prices in one month is unlikely given the 60-day normalisation window analysts have repeatedly cited. However, a reduction of AED 0.40 to AED 0.60 per litre for July is a realistic expectation if Brent holds at or below $75 through the rest of June.
The question now is not whether prices will fall. They already are. The question is how fast the pump catches up with the barrel.
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