Oil markets do not like uncertainty. They tolerate it briefly, price in a temporary premium, and wait for a resolution. What they struggle with is the kind of uncertainty that looks like it is resolving and then is not. That is exactly where markets found themselves on June 8, 2026, as a week that had briefly felt like progress was erased by fresh military action. Oil prices increase was seen after fresh US strikes on Iranian targets renewed fears that fragile ceasefire talks could collapse and prolong disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.
At the time of writing, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading at USD 90.51, up 2.06 percent on the session, while Brent crude had climbed 2.17 percent to trade at USD 96.34. The oil prices increase arrived after both benchmarks had dropped more than 7 percent over the preceding days on ceasefire optimism. That optimism has now been sharply tested.
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Oil Prices Increase: What Triggered the Jump?
The increase came after reports that the US military hit southern Iranian targets, and downed four Iranian drones. A US official from Central Command said the action was defensive, as the ground control station hit was about to launch a fifth drone. The strikes ran counter to a softening mood in the market as they were based on the hope that a diplomatic breakthrough would occur.
Iran’s Parliamentary Speaker stated that the US naval blockade and violation of agreements regarding Lebanon constituted violations of the ceasefire, and declared that US and Israeli bases and assets were now legitimate targets. Consequently, any path toward a negotiated reopening of the Strait of Hormuz appeared to narrow significantly within hours of the strikes.
Fresh strikes on Kuwait and Oman have also been reported in the region, further undermining the case for near-term de-escalation and keeping traders skeptical of diplomatic progress.
The Bigger Picture
The oil prices increase of June 8 does not exist in isolation. It is one move in a much longer run. WTI and Brent contracts remain more than 30 percent higher than when the US and Israeli-led war against Iran began on February 28, 2026.
Before the war, Brent crude was priced at USD 69.36 and WTI at USD 66.64 per barrel on June 12, 2025, the day before the initial Israel-Iran strikes that began this escalation cycle. Today those benchmarks sit at USD 96 and USD 90 respectively. The Strait of Hormuz through which some 20 percent of the world’s oil flows, has been near-closed since the conflict escalated, leaving energy supplies structurally high and preventing them from coming in from the Persian Gulf.
Goldman Sachs commented that uncertainty over the price of both the Brent and the WTI was two-sided, with the bank seeing as much risk to its forecast of USD 90 per barrel for Brent and USD 83 per barrel for the WTI from above as there was below.
Oil Prices Increase: Supply Under Strain
The inventory data makes the supply picture even starker. UBS said the global oil market was showing mounting signs of strain as inventories continued to fall amid disruptions to shipments via the Strait of Hormuz. Observed global oil inventories dropped by a combined 246 million barrels in March and April, while cumulative production losses could exceed 1 billion barrels by the end of May.
OPEC+ members agreed in July to raise oil output quotas by 188,000 barrels per day – the fourth oil output quota increase since the Strait of Hormuz was closed. So far, however, new OPEC+ supply has not been enough to compensate for the volumes that have been missing due to the fighting.
Meanwhile, prices were pulled down by concerns about consumption in the wake of Chinese crude imports dropping to the lowest level in 10 years, as demand and refinery activity slowed. Global demand growth is expected to be much weaker this year, according to several analysts.
The latest oil prices increase of June 8 indicates that the market is in a state of tug of war between two forces. Diplomatic optimism keeps prices from climbing further. Military escalation keeps them from falling. Until one side of that equation prevails, the volatility is unlikely to stop.
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